An Unusually Quiet Atlantic — With a Record on the Line
Despite sitting at the historical peak of hurricane season, forecasters have flagged only a low chance of tropical development off the southeastern U.S. coast into the middle of September, with a slow-moving front expected to bring enhanced thunderstorm activity to the region rather than a defined storm.
What makes this stretch notable is what hasn’t happened yet. Although five tropical storms have already formed this season, putting the Atlantic well past its historical averages, no hurricane has yet developed — and the basin is now closing in on a record. The latest date on record for the season’s first Atlantic hurricane, going back to the satellite era of the 1960s, is September 11, a mark set in both 2002 and 2013. If nothing intensifies by that date, 2026 will make history for the wrong reasons — becoming the latest start to hurricane formation ever recorded.
Meteorologists aren’t ruling out a turnaround, though. Forecasters are currently watching three separate tropical waves, including one moving through the central Caribbean, any of which could still organize into the season’s first hurricane.
Action in the Pacific
While the Atlantic stays subdued, the Pacific has been far busier. Tropical Storm Marie is currently forecast to continue moving west-northwestward over the next day before a cut-off low pressure system from the northeast Pacific shifts its track further to the northwest. Satellite imagery shows Marie holding steady with sustained winds near 65 mph, with convection flaring on its western and southern sides while drier air affects the storm’s northern half.
Elsewhere, a separate system briefly grabbed attention closer to home. A system dubbed Potential Storm One emerged over the northwest Gulf, with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track carrying it northeastward along the Texas coast before pushing inland over southwestern Louisiana, bringing tropical downpours and tropical-storm-force winds before weakening. Beyond that, no further Atlantic development is expected over the coming week, thanks to Saharan dust and high wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean, even as Tropical Storm Amanda continues spinning harmlessly in the middle of the eastern Pacific.
Why NOAA Still Expects a Below-Normal Season
The quiet stretch lines up with what NOAA predicted months ago. The agency’s outlook called for 7 to 13 named storms this season, with 2 to 6 becoming hurricanes and up to two reaching major hurricane strength, and it has maintained that below-normal forecast heading into the September peak. NOAA puts the odds at 75% for a below-normal season, versus just 20% for near-normal and 5% for above-normal activity. The dampening factor is El Niño, which emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June and increases wind shear across the Atlantic — conditions that tend to choke off storm formation or weaken systems that do form.
Interestingly, that same El Niño pattern is having the opposite effect elsewhere. NOAA’s Central Pacific outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, driven by the same El Niño conditions that are suppressing the Atlantic, with 5 to 13 tropical cyclones expected in that basin.
What to Watch This Week
For anyone tracking the forecast, the next few days matter:
- September 10 marks the Atlantic’s climatological peak — historically the single most active point of the year.
- September 11 is the record date to watch; if no hurricane forms by then, it’s uncharted territory for the satellite era.
- Three tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean remain worth monitoring for sudden development.
- Marie’s northwestward turn in the Pacific could bring it closer to shipping lanes or land in the coming days.
Storm behavior can shift fast, so anyone in coastal areas should keep checking official sources like NOAA’s National Hurricane Center rather than relying on any single forecast snapshot.
